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Prochain séminaire, le Jeudi 3 juin 2010
Fabien POSTEL-VINAY (Universtiy of Bristol, UK and PSE)
"Large Employers are more Cyclically Sensitive"
avec Giuseppe Moscarini (Yale Universtiy and NBER)
de 14 h à 15 h 30 en Salle S016 à l'INSEE-CREST, 15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri, 92245 MALAKOFF (Métro : Malakoff/Plateau de Vanves (Immeuble "Malakoff 2)).
Résumé : We present new empirical evidence that large firms or establishments are more sensitive than small ones to business cycle conditions. Larger employers shrink faster, or expand more slowly, during and after a typical recession, and create more of their new jobs late in the following expansion, both in gross and net terms. The differential growth rate of employment between large and small firms is strongly negatively correlated with the unemployment rate, and varies by about 5% over the business cycle. Omitting cyclical indicators may lead to conclude that, on average, these cyclical effects wash out and size does not predict subsequent growth (Gibrat’s law). We employ a variety of measures of relative employment growth and size classifications. We revisit two statistical fallacies, the Regression and Reclassification biases, that can affect our results, and we show empirically that they are quantitatively modest given our focus on relative cyclical behavior. We exploit a variety of (partly novel) U.S. datasets, both repeated cross-sections and job flows with employer longitudinal information, starting in the late 1970s and now spanning four business cycles. The pattern that we uncover is robust to different treatments of entry and exit of firms and establishments, and occurs within, not across, sectors and states. We find the same pattern in several other countries, including in longitudinal censuses of employers from Denmark, France and Brazil. Finally, we sketch a simple firm-ladder model of turnover that can shed light on these facts.