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Jeudi 21 Octobre 2010

Peter HAAN (Goethe University Frankfurt) présentera une communication :

"The Effect of life Expectancy on Life-Cycle Employment and Fiscal Policy"

de 14 h à 15 h 30 en Salle S016 à l'INSEE-CREST, 15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri, 92245 MALAKOFF (Métro : Malakoff/Plateau de Vanves (Immeuble "Malakoff 2)).

Résumé : Increasing longevity has important consequences for the sustainability of public pension systems. Our paper is the first to address empirically how pension systems need to be reformed to maintain long term fiscal stability in the face of increasing life expectancy. To do this, we need to use a dynamic, forward looking model of wealth accumulation, labor supply and retirement decisions over the life cycle. We exploit a unique historical event -~German reunification~- in order to justify the dependence of employment and retirement decisions on life-expectancy, and to establish the predictive validity of our model. Drawing on our model, we estimate the increase in the age of compulsory retirement required to maintain the fiscal balance of the public pension system following possible changes in longevity over the next 40 years.”