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Jeudi 19 Mai 2011

Edouard CHALLE (Ecole Polytechnique)
"Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle" (with Xavier RAGOT, Banque de France)

de 14 h à 15 h 30 Exceptionnellement en Salle S018 à l'INSEE-CREST, 15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri, 92245 MALAKOFF (Métro : Malakoff/Plateau de Vanves (Immeuble "Malakoff 2)).

Abstract : We present a tractable general-equilibrium model of time-varying precautionary saving due to changes in uninsured idiosyncratic risk. In our model, agents facing incomplete markets and borrowing constraints respond to countercyclical changes in unemployment risk by altering their bu¤fer stock of wealth, with a direct impact on aggregate consumption. In a calibrated version of the model, the response of aggregate consumption to a typical NBER recession is found to be twice as large as that implied by a comparable representative agent economy, and about 30% larger than that implied by a comparable economy with borrowing constraints but full unemployment insurance