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Jeudi 11 Octobre 2012

Emeric HENRY  (Sciences Po) présentera une communication :

"Voter Turnout and Fiscal Policy" avec Raphael Godefroy

de 14 h à 15 h 30 en Salle S016 à l'INSEE-CREST,
15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri, 92245 MALAKOFF (Métro : Malakoff/Plateau de Vanves (Immeuble "Malakoff 2)).

Abstract : Though a large literature on the determinants of turnout has flourished, there is scant evidence on the causal impact of turnout on policies implemented in practice. Using data on French municipalities and instrumental variables for turnout based on temperature and influenza incidence, we show that a one percent increase in turnout decreases on average the municipalities' yearly budget by 1.5 percent. This surprising result could be the consequence of two facts that we establish empirically. First an increase in turnout has a negative effect on the electoral prospects of the incumbent. Second, the incumbents implement on average higher budgets than their rivals if reelected.