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Jeudi 4 Avril 2013

Stanislav ANATOLYEV (New Economic School, Moscou)

"Sequential Testing with Uniformly distributed Size" avec Grigory Kosenok

de 14 h à 15 h 30 en salle S016 à l'INSEE-CREST, 15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri, 92245 MALAKOFF (Métro : Malakoff/Plateau de Vanves (Immeuble "Malakoff 2)).

abstract : Sequential procedures of testing for structural stability do not provide enough guidance on the shape of boundaries that are used to decide on acceptance or rejection, requiring only that the overall size of the test is asymptotically controlled. We introduce and motivate a reasonable criterion for a shape of boundaries which requires that the test size be uniformly distributed over the testing period. Under this criterion, we numerically construct boundaries for most popular sequential tests that are characterized by a test statistic behaving asymptotically either as a Wiener process or Brownian bridge. We handle this problem both in a context of retrospecting a historical sample and in a context of monitoring newly arriving data. We tabulate the boundaries by .tting them to certain .exible but parsimonious functional forms. Interesting patterns emerge in an illustrative application of sequential tests to the Phillips curve model.