Tous les séminaires
Jeudi 18 février 2015
Stefano DELLAVIGNA (UC Berkeley, NBER)
(Avec Attila LINDNER, Balazs REIZER et Johannes F. SCHMIEDER)
présentera une communication :
"Reference-Dependent Job Search: Evidence from Hungary"
de 14 h à 15 h 30 en salle S016 au CREST, 15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri, 92245 MALAKOFF (Métro : Malakoff/Plateau de Vanves (Immeuble "Malakoff 2)).
"We propose a model of job search with reference-dependent preferences, where the reference point is given by recent income. Newly unemployed individuals search hard given that they are at a loss, but over time they get used to lower income, and thus reduce their search eﬀort.In anticipation of a beneﬁt cut their search eﬀort rises again, to then decline once they get used to the new beneﬁt level. The model ﬁts the typical pattern of the exit from unemployment, even with no unobserved heterogeneity. The model also makes distinguishing predictions regarding the response to beneﬁt changes, which we evaluate using a unique reform. In 2005, Hungary switched from a single-step UI system to a two-step system, with unchanged overall generosity. The system generated increased hazard rates in anticipation of, and especially following, beneﬁt cuts in ways the standard model has a hard time explaining. We structurally estimate a model with optimal consumption-savings and endogenous search eﬀort, as well as unobserved heterogeneity. The reference-dependent model ﬁts the hazard rates substantially better than the standard model, holding constant the number of parameters. We estimate a signiﬁcant weight on gain-loss utility and a speed of adjustment of the reference point in the order of six months. The estimates also point to substantial impatience, likely in the form of present-bias. Estimates of a variety of alternative models, including habit formation, do not come close to the ﬁt of the reference-dependent model."